Miami vs. Ole Miss: Vrbo Fiesta Bowl College Football Playoff Semifinal Game Preview

         Miami vs. Ole Miss: Vrbo Fiesta Bowl College Football Playoff Semifinal Game Preview

    The 2025-2026 College Football Playoff Semifinals kick off when the No. 10 seed, the Miami Hurricanes, face the sixth-seeded Ole Miss Rebels in the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl on Thursday, January 8, at 7:30 pm., on ESPN. All the stakes, key matchups, and a prediction will be broken down here. 

    The Stakes:         The stakes for this game could not be higher. The winner goes to the National Championship to take on the winner of the Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl between fifth-seeded Oregon and top-seeded Indiana. Both teams are making their first-ever CFP Semifinal appearance. Miami is seeking their sixth National Championship and their first since 2001, while Ole Miss is seeking their second National Championship and their first since 1962. Additionally, if Miami wins this game, they will be playing in the National Championship Game in their home stadium, meaning that they will essentially be playing a home game for a national championship. 

    When Miami has the Ball:       When Miami has the ball, they will be led by quarterback Carson Beck. A transfer from Georgia, Beck has thrown 398 passes with 296 completions for 3,313 yards with 27 touchdowns and ten interceptions so far this season. He is averaging 8.3 yards per attempt. In the Hurricanes' upset of the second-seeded defending national champion Ohio State Buckeyes in the quarterfinal round, Beck threw 26 passes with 19 completions for 138 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions. His top receiving target is freshman phenom Malachi Toney, who has caught 94 passes for 1,008 yards and eight touchdowns on the year. Alongside Toney at wide receiver are Keelon Marion, who has 49 catches for 626 yards and one touchdown this season, and CJ Daniels, who has 42 catches for 469 yards and seven touchdowns so far this year. Tight end Elija Lofton can also catch passes, as he has caught 22 passes for 203 yards and three touchdowns this season. Miami ranks 40th in the country in passing offense, averaging 253.6 passing yards per game. On the ground, the Hurricanes' leading rusher is running back Mark Fletcher Jr., who has 177 carries for 947 yards and ten touchdowns this season. The backup running backs are CharMar Brown, who has 105 carries for 415 yards and six touchdowns this season, and Girard Pringle Jr., who has 62 carries for 375 yards and four touchdowns on the year. Overall, though, Miami only ranks 76th in the country in rushing offense, only rushing for 152.0 yards per game. Ole Miss' defense, meanwhile, gives up 20.4 points per game, good for 29th in the country. At linebacker, they are led by TJ Dottery, who leads the team with 87 tackles, Suntarine Perkins, who is second on the team with 74 tackles, tied for fourth on the team with three sacks, tied for second on the team with five passes defended, and tied for second on the team with one interception, Jaden Yates, who ranks eighth on the team with 51 tackles, Tahj Chambers, who is tenth on the team with 40 tackles, and Andrew Jones, who ranks eleventh on the team with 38 tackles. Along the defensive line, they are led by Will Echoles, who is tied for fourth on the team with 62 tackles, third on the team with 4.5 sacks, and tied for second on the team with five passes defended, Kam Franklin, who is tied for fourth on the team with 62 tackles and second on the team with five sacks, Zxavian Harris, who is sixth on the team with 56 tackles and tied for fourth on the team with three sacks, Princewill Umanmielen, who is ninth on the team with 41 tackles and leads the team with eight sacks, Da'Shawn Womack, who is thirteenth on the team with 26 tackles and sixth on the team with two sacks, and Jamarious Brown, who is seventeenth on the team with 20 tackles and is tied for seventh on the team with one sack. The Rebels rank 65th in the country in rushing offense, giving up 146.1 rushing yards per game. In the secondary, Ole Miss's starting safeties are Wydett Williams Jr., who is third on the team with 66 tackles, first on the team with eight passes defended, and first on the team with three interceptions, and Kapena Gushiken, who is seventh on the team with 51 tackles and tied for second on the team with five passes defended. Backing those two up at the safety position are Sage Ryan, who is tied for thirteenth on the team with 26 tackles and fifth on the team with four passes defended, TJ Banks, who is eighteenth on the team with 19 tackles, and Nick Cull, who is nineteenth on the team with 15 tackles and tied for sixth on the team with three passes defended. At cornerback, they are led by Antonio Kite, who ranks twelfth on the team with 30 tackles and tied for second on the team with five passes defended, Chris Graves Jr., who is fifteenth on the team with 25 tackles, Jaylon Braxton, who is sixteenth on the team with 21 tackles and tied for second on the team with one interception, and Ricky Fletcher, who is tied for twentieth on the team with 11 tackles. Ole Miss ranks 31st in the country in passing defense, giving up 194.0 passing yards per game. Overall, the Rebels rank 41st in the country in total defense, giving up 340.1 total yards per game. From a matchup standpoint, the better part of Miami's offense goes up against the better part of Ole Miss's defense. Carson Beck, in this game, may need to step up and make some big plays here. Miami's rushing offense has looked better of late, though, and they will also need to keep the momentum going against a not too strong Rebels run defense. 

    When Ole Miss has the Ball:        When the Rebels have possession of the football, their quarterback is Trinidad Chambliss. A national champion a year ago at the Division II level, Chambliss transferred to Ole Miss during the offseason and has had a breakout year for the Rebels. After taking the reins over preseason starter Austin Simmons, Chambliss has thrown 408 passes with 271 completions for 3,660 yards with 21 touchdowns and just three interceptions. He exploded in their quarterfinal win over Georgia, going 30 for 46 with 362 yards and two touchdowns. He has a deep receiving corps led by Harrison Wallace III, who has 57 catches for 894 yards and four touchdowns on the year, De'Zhaun Stribling, who has 54 catches for 734 yards and six touchdowns this season, Deuce Alexander, who has caught 43 passes for 677 yards and two touchdowns on the season, tight end Dae'Quan Wright, who has 36 catches for 571 yards and four touchdowns this year, Cayden Lee, who has 39 catches and 568 yards and three touchdowns this season, and Winston Watkins, who has 25 catches for 370 yards and one touchdown on the year. Ole Miss has an electric passing attack, as they average 315.9 passing yards per game, good for 3rd in the country. On the ground, the Rebels are led by running back Kewan Lacy, who has carried the ball 295 times for 1,464 yards and 23 touchdowns this season. Chambliss has also carried the ball 128 times for 520 yards and eight touchdowns this year. Ole Miss ranks 37th in the country in rushing offense, averaging 180.3 rushing yards per game. Overall, the Rebels rank 12th in the country in total offense, averaging 37.9 points per game, and 2nd in the country in total offense, averaging 496.2 points per game. They are up against a Miami defense that is one of the best in the country, as they rank 4th in the country in total defense, only giving up 13.1 points per game. At linebacker, they are led by Mohamed Toure, who is first on the team with 69 tackles and is tied for second on the team with five passes defended, Wesley Bissainthe, who is third on the team with 59 tackles, Raul Aguirre Jr., who is ninth on the team with 40 tackles, and Chase Smith, who is tenth on the team with 28 tackles. Akheem Mesidor and Reuben Bain Jr. lead the way up front. Mesidor is sixth on the team with 56 tackles and leads the team with 10.5 sacks, while Bain is seventh on the team with 45 tackles and second on the team with 8.5 sacks. The other two starters are Ahmed Moten Sr. and David Blay Jr. Miami ranks fifth in the nation in rushing defense, only giving up 84.0 points per game. In the secondary, the Hurricanes are led by Jakobe Thomas, who is second on the team with 64 tackles and leads the team with five interceptions, Keionte Scott, who is tied for fourth on the team with 58 tackles and second on the team with two interceptions, Zechariah Poyser, who is tied for fourth on the team with 58 tackles, and Xavier Lucas, who is seventh on the team with 41 tackles and leads the team with seven passes defended. Miami ranks 40th in the country in passing defense, giving up 201.1 points per game. Overall, the Hurricanes rank 10th in the country in total defense, giving up 285.1 yards per game. 

    Predicted Final Score: Miami 27, Ole Miss 24