Alabama at Oklahoma: College Football Playoff First Round Game Preview

        Alabama at Oklahoma: College Football Playoff First Round Playoff First Round Game Preview

   

    The College Football Playoff kicks off on Friday, December 19 at 8:00 pm on ESPN when the ninth-seeded Alabama Crimson Tide travel to Norman to face the eighth-seeded Oklahoma Sooners. All the stakes and key matchups, as well as a prediction, will be discussed here. 

    The Stakes:        This is the No. 8 vs. No. 9 game in the 12-team CFP format. That means that the winner of this matchup will take on top-seeded, undefeated Indiana in the second round of the playoffs. For Alabama, this is their ninth playoff appearance in the twelve years of the playoffs' existence, and they are seeking their first national championship since 2020. For Oklahoma, this is their fifth playoff appearance, and they are seeking their first national championship since all the way back in 2000. Alabama is seeking to prove that they belong in the playoffs in the first place, as there was talk that they might be left out after their blowout loss to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. Oklahoma is looking to capitalize on the momentum from their four-game winning streak to end the season. Alabama is also looking for revenge on Oklahoma for the 23-21 loss that the Sooners dealt the Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa in the regular season. 

    When Alabama has the Ball:            When Alabama has the ball, they are led by quarterback Ty Simpson. Simpson has had an up-and-down season, as he was a Heisman Trophy favorite at midseason, but has cooled off ever since then. On the season, he has thrown 428 passes with 275 completions for 3,268 yards with 26 touchdowns and five interceptions. He is averaging 7.6 yards per attempt. His trio of starting wide receivers include Germie Bernard, Ryan Williams, and Isaiah Horton. Bernard has 57 catches for 762 yards and seven touchdowns on the year, Williams has 42 catches for 631 yards and four touchdowns on the season, and Horton has 35 catches for 430 yards and eight touchdowns so far this season. Alabama ranks 23rd in the country in passing offense, averaging 273.2 passing yards per game. In the ground game, Alabama's starting running back, Jam Miller, did not play in the Tide's loss to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game due to a lower leg injury, so it is unknown whether he will be ready to go for this game. On the year, Miller has carried the ball 123 times for 493 yards and three touchdowns. If he cannot play, the Crimson Tide's backup running backs are Daniel Hill, who has 61 carries for 228 yards and five touchdowns on the season, and Kevin Riley, who has 56 carries for 222 yards and two touchdowns on the season. Without Miller in that SEC Championship Game, Alabama had -3 rushing yards, so they may need him back here. On the season, Alabama only ranks 117th in the country in rushing offense, averaging a meagre 116.2 rushing yards per game. Overall, the Tide rank 41st in the country in scoring offense, averaging 31.2 points per game, and 69th in the country in total offense, averaging 389.4 total yards per game. Meanwhile, Oklahoma's defense ranks 7th in the country in scoring defense, only giving up O13.9 points per game. Their starting linebackers are Kip Lewis, who leads the team with 72 tackles and is tied for fourth on the team with three sacks on the season, and Owen Heinecke, who is second on the team with 67 tackles and tied for sixth on the team with two sacks on the season. Kendal Daniels, who is fourth on the team with 49 tackles, Sammy Omosigho, who is fifth on the team with 47 tackles and tied for fifth on the team with two sacks, and Kobie McKinzie, who is tenth on the team with 32 tackles and also has one sack, also factor into the rotation. Along the defensive line, the main contributors for the Sooners are David Stone, who ranks tied for seventh on the team with 43 tackles and tied for eighth on the team with 1.5 sacks, Taylor Wein, who ranks ninth on the team with 37 tackles and second on the team with six sacks, Gracen Halton, who ranks eleventh on the team with 31 tackles and third on the team with 3.5 sacks, Damonic Williams, who ranks fourteenth on the team with 26 tackles and tied for eighth on the team with 1.5 sacks, Jayden Jackson, who ranks fifteenth on the team with 25 tackles and tied for fourth on the team with three sacks, R Mason Thomas, who ranks sixteenth on the team with 23 tackles and leads the team with 6.5 sacks, and Marvin Jones Jr., who ranks tied for seventeenth on the team with 19 tackles and also has one sack. Oklahoma's rushing defense ranks 5th in the country, only giving up 81.4 rushing yards per game. In the secondary, their rotation includes Robert Spears-Jennings, who is third on the team with 57 tackles and tied for fourth on the team with one interception, Peyton Bowen, who is sixth on the team with 43 tackles, leads the team with seven passes defended, and tied for first on the team with two interceptions, Courtland Guilory, who is eighth on the team with 39 tackles and second on the team with six passes defended, Michael Boganowski, who is twelfth on the team with 29 tackles, Reggie Powers III, who is thirteenth on the team with 28 tackles, and Eli Bowen, who is tied for seventeenth on the team with 19 tackles and tied for first on the team with two interceptions. The Sooners' passing defense ranks 31st in the country, giving up 192.2 passing yards per game. Overall, Oklahoma's defense ranks 9th in the country in total defense, giving up 273.6 yards per game. From a matchup perspective, Alabama will likely struggle to run the ball in this game. Oklahoma has one of the best rushing defenses in the country, while Alabama has one of the worst rushing offenses. Therefore, Ty Simpson and this Alabama passing attack will have to carry the load in this game, if Alabama is going to successfully move the ball down the field. The numbers from the first time that these two teams played also back this up, as, in that game, Alabama was held to 80 rushing yards on 2.4 yards per carry. However, Simpson threw for 326 yards in that first matchup. It is going to have to be more of that for Alabama's offense. 

    When Oklahoma has the Ball:         When Oklahoma has possession of the football, their quarterback is John Mateer. Like Simpson for Alabama, Mateer is a player who had a lot of Heisman hype early in the season, but has struggled a bit more in the latter portions of the regular season. He broke his hand during Oklahoma's fourth game of the season, a 24-17 home win over Auburn, and it has taken a while for him to fully recover from that injury. In his first game back from the injury, the Red River Showdown against Texas, he threw four interceptions in a 23-6 loss. Ever since that game, even during Oklahoma's four-game win streak to close out the regular season, he hasn't been the same, and he is still seeking to find his early-season form. On the year, he has thrown 356 passes with 221 completions for 2,578 yards with 12 touchdowns and ten interceptions. He has also carried the ball 130 times for 416 yards and seven touchdowns. His top receiver is Isaiah Sategna III, who has 65 catches for 948 yards and seven touchdowns so far this season. Deion Burks, who has 50 catches for 513 yards and three touchdowns on the year, and tight end Jaren Kanak, who has 40 catches for 511 yards and no touchdowns on the season, are the next two leading receivers. The third starting wide receiver for the Sooners is Keontez Lewis, who has 20 receptions for 238 yards and two touchdowns on the year. Overall, Oklahoma's passing offense ranks 63rd in the country, having 229.9 passing yards per game. On the ground, Oklahoma's top two running backs are Tory Blaylock, who has 109 carries for 444 yards and four touchdowns this season, and Xavier Robinson, who has 80 carries for 417 yards and four touchdowns this year. Oklahoma's rushing offense has been pretty weak, though, as they only rank 107th in the country, only averaging 123.8 rushing yards per game. Overall, Oklahoma ranks tied for 79th in the country in scoring offense, averaging 26.4 points per game, and 100th in the country in total offense, averaging 353.7 total yards per game. They are up against an Alabama defense that ranks 12th in the nation in scoring defense, only giving up 17.4 points per game. At linebacker, they are led by Justin Jefferson, who leads the team with 67 tackles and is tied for third on the team with two sacks, Deontae Lawson, who is second on the team with 66 tackles, Nickai Hill-Green, who is fourth on the team with 45 tackles, and Yhonzae Pierre, who is fifth on the team with 44 tackles and leads the team with six sacks. Their starters along the defensive line are LT Overton, who is seventh on the team with 33 tackles and second on the team with four sacks, James Smith, who is eleventh on the team with 26 tackles and third on the team with 2.5 sacks, and Tim Keenan III, who is tied for sixteenth on the team with 13 tackles and tied for fourth on the team with two sacks. Jordan Renaud, who is tied for sixteenth on the team with 13 tackles and has no sacks, London Simmons, who is eighteenth on the team with 12 tackles and has one sack, Kelby Collins, who is tied for twentieth on the team with nine tackles and has one sack, and Keon Keeley, who is tied for 22nd on the team with eight tackles and tied for fourth on the team with two sacks. Alabama's rushing defense ranks 36th in the country, giving up 125.6 rushing yards per game. In the secondary, they are led by Bray Hubbard, who is third on the team with 61 tackles and leads the team with eight passes defended and four interceptions, Keon Sabb, who is sixth on the team with 43 tackles, has three passes defended, and tied for third on the team with one interception, Domani Jackson, who is eighth on the team with 31 tackles, Zabien Brown, who is ninth on the team with 30 tackles, tied for third on the team with four passes defended, and tied for third on the team with one interception, and Dijon Lee Jr., who is eleventh on the team with 29 tackles, tied for third on the team with four passes defended, and second on the team with two interceptions. Alabama's passing defense is the main strength of the team, as they rank 7th in the country in that category, only giving up 157.7 passing yards per game. Overall, Alabama ranks 12th in the country in total defense, giving up 283.3 total yards per game. From a matchup perspective, Oklahoma may not be good enough in the running game to take advantage of Alabama's run defense, which is the weaker aspect of the Tide's defense. In the first meeting between these two teams, Alabama's run defense stood strong, as they held Oklahoma to 74 rushing yards on 2.6 yards per carry. This will force Mateer to try to beat Alabama with his arm, which he wasn't particularly effective at in the first game either, as he only threw for 138 yards on 6.0 yards per attempt. Oklahoma has to find a way to be better offensively than they were in the first matchup. 

    Prediction:         Overall, this is a really tough game to pick. Oklahoma won the first game in Tuscaloosa, and Alabama hasn't looked great lately. However, Oklahoma was outgained by almost 200 yards in that first matchup, suggesting that some luck was involved. I expect this to be a low-scoring game, as both offenses have taken their lumps as of late. That being said, I am actually going to pick Alabama to get the road win here. This pick is mostly founded on some concerning statistics from the first meeting. Even though Oklahoma won, most statistical categories outside of turnovers favor the Tide in that game. I think Oklahoma got a bit lucky to win that first game. For this reason, I am picking the luck to turn to Alabama's side, and I will go with the Crimson Tide to get the close, low-scoring win here and set up an interesting matchup with top-seeded Indiana, where we will see if Indiana can take down the most prominent program in the sport. 

    Projected Final Score:     Alabama 20, Oklahoma 17