Alabama vs. Georgia: SEC Championship Game Preview

         Alabama vs. Georgia: SEC Championship Game Preview

    Championship Week continues when traditional heavyweights Alabama and Georgia face off in the SEC Championship Game. All the stakes, key matchups, and a prediction will be discussed here. 

    The Stakes:                 Both teams are more than likely in the playoffs, whether they win or lose this game. Georgia is a virtual lock, no matter what. Alabama is not a complete lock if they lose this game, but they are probably in. However, this game still has big playoff implications for both teams from a seeding perspective. The winner, especially if Georgia wins, is probably getting a top four seed and a first round bye in the playoffs. The loser will not get a first round bye, and may not even be able to host their first round game. Therefore, this game still has playoff implications for both sides. An SEC Championship is also on the line. Georgia is seeking their second straight SEC Championship, their third in the last four years, and their fourth under head coach Kirby Smart. They are also trying to beat Alabama in the SEC Championship for the first time ever. Alabama is seeking their second SEC Championship in the last three years and their fourth in the last six years. Georgia is also trying to get a monkey off their back, as they have only beaten Alabama once since 2007. 

    When Alabama has the Ball:           When Alabama has the ball, they are led by quarterback Ty Simpson. After getting blistering hot in the middle of the season, Simpson has cooled down as of late. Overall throughout the season, he has thrown 389 passes with 256 completions for 3,056 yards with 25 touchdowns and just four interceptions. While he has only thrown four interceptions, he only averages 7.9 yards per attempt, so he isn't the most efficient quarterback. His top wide receiver is Germie Bernard, who has caught 51 passes for 700 yards and six touchdowns on the season. Ryan Williams was supposed to be one of the best wide receivers in the country this season, but he has disappointed, only catching 48 passes for 598 yards and four touchdowns. Isaiah Horton has caught 34 passes for 418 yards and eight touchdowns. Overall, though, Alabama's passing offense has been pretty good, as they average 278.3 passing yards per game, good for 18th in the country. The ground game is where things get concerning for this offense. Their starting running back is Jam Miller, but he has been in and out of the lineup with injuries all season. He got injured again in Alabama's win at Auburn last week, but he is expected to be back for this game. When he has played this season, he has carried the ball 123 times for 493 yards and three touchdowns. As he has only averaged 4.0 yards per carry, he hasn't been the most efficient running back. Alabama's next two running backs, who have played when Miller was injured, are Kevin Riley, who has 56 carries for 422 yards and two touchdowns, and Daniel Hill, who has 57 carries for 417 yards and five touchdowns. None of Miller, Riley, and Hill average over four yards per carry. Alabama needs to find a more effective weapon in the running game. The Crimson Tide only average 126.4 rushing yards per game, which ranks 104th in the country. Overall, Alabama ranks 26th in the country in scoring offense, averaging 33.3 points per game, and 53rd in the country in total offense, averaging 404.4 yards per game. Georgia's defense, on the other hand, ranks 12th in the country in scoring defense, giving up 16.7 points per game. At linebacker, they are led by C.J. Allen, who leads the team with 80 tackles, Raylen Wilson, who is second on the team with 65 tackles, and Chris Cole, who is fourth on the team with 48 tackles and leads the team with four sacks. Georgia is not a team that delivers much pressure, as they only have 17 sacks as a team this year. Along the defensive line, they are led by Christen Miller, who has 20 tackles and 1.5 sacks, Elijah Griffin, who has 17 tackles and one sack, Xzaier McCleod, who has 13 tackles and no sacks, Jordan Hall, who has 12 tackles and no sacks, Nnamdi Ogboko, who has 10 tackles and one sack, and Josh Horton, who has nine tackles and no sacks. Despite the relative lack of big plays, though, this is still an elite Georgia rushing defense, as they rank 6th in the country in rushing defense, only giving up 86.1 rushing yards per game. In the secondary, they are led by KJ Bolden, who is third on the team with 63 tackles and second on the team with two interceptions, and Ellis Robinson IV, who leads the team with four interceptions. Joenel Aguero, Daylan Everette, JaCorey Thomas, Kyron Jones, and Zion Branch are also contributors. Georgia's passing defense is not as good as their rushing defense, as they rank 44th in the country in passing defense, giving up 204.8 passing yards per game. Overall, the Bulldogs rank 13th in the country in total defense, giving up 290.8 yards per game. As for the matchups, Alabama will likely have trouble running the ball in this game. Their rushing offense is their weakness, while Georgia's rushing defense is their strength. Therefore, if Alabama is going to move the ball in this game, Ty Simpson is going to have to have a big day here. Alabama needs to get their passing offense going. However., if they want to do that, they may have to get something going in the running game, just so that Georgia can't entirely sell out against the pass. Alabama's main way of moving the ball down the field will have to be through the passing game, though. 

    When Georgia has the Ball:     When Georgia has the ball, their quarterback is Gunner Stockton. So far this year, Stockton has thrown 329 passes with 231 completions for 2,535 yards with 20 touchdowns and five interceptions. Like Simpson, he is not the most efficient quarterback, as he only averages 7.7 yards per attempt. However, he is a tough player, and a good game manager. His leading receiver is Zachariah Branch, who has 68 catches for 691 yards and four touchdowns on the season. Colbie Young has 23 catches for 336 yards and one touchdown on the year. London Humphries, Noah Thomas, Dillon Bell, and tight end Oscar Delp also contribute in the passing game. Georgia's passing offense is average at best, though, as they rank 69th in the country in passing offense, averaging 225.7 passing yards per game. In the ground game, their leading rusher is running back Nate Frazier, who has carried the ball 145 times for 809 yards and five touchdowns so far this season. He averages a fairly efficient 5.6 yards per carry. Chauncey Bowens also contributes at running back, carrying the ball 94 times for 493 yards and six touchdowns this year. Gunner Stockton also runs the ball, as he has carried the ball 103 times for 403 yards and eight touchdowns on the year. The Bulldogs have a solid running offense this year, as they average 190.4 rushing yards per game, good for 28th in the country. Offensively as a whole, Georgia ranks 34th in the country in scoring offense, averaging 32.3 points per game, and 41st in the country in total offense, averaging 416.1 total yards per game. They face an excellent Alabama defense that ranks 11th in the country in scoring defense, only giving up 16.5 points per game. At linebacker, they are led by Justin Jefferson, who leads the team with 63 tackles, Deontae Lawson, who is second on the team with 60 tackles, Yhonzae Pierre, who is fourth on the team with 39 tackles and leads the team with six sacks, and Nikhai Hill-Green, who is tied for fifth on the team with 38 tackles. LT Overton leads the defensive line, as he has 33 tackles and is second on the team with four sacks. James Smith and Edric Hill are the other defensive line starters. Alabama ranks 36th in the country in rushing defense, giving up 124.3 rushing yards per game. In the secondary, Alabama is led by Bray Hubbard, who is third on the team with 55 tackles and leads the team with eight passes defended and four interceptions. Keon Sabb, who has 38 tackles and one interception, Dijon Lee Jr., who has 28 tackles and two interceptions, Zabien Brown, who has 28 tackles and one interception, and Domani Jackson, who has 27 tackles and one interception, are the other main contributors at defensive back. This is Alabama's defensive strength, as they rank 7th in the country, only giving up 157.8 passing yards per game. Alabama ranks 12th in the country in total defense, giving up 282.2 total yards per game. From a matchup perspective, Stockton may struggle to generate good passing numbers in this game. Georgia's strength offensively is the ground game, while Alabama's strength defensively is their pass defense. This means that Georgia will need to rely on their rushing attack in this matchup. Stockton will need to hit a couple of throws, but, mostly, this will have to be about running the football for Georgia. 

    Prediction:          This is a very evenly matched game. I think that it will also be a relatively low scoring game. Both teams rely on strong defense to carry them, and let the offense score just enough points to come out with the win. This game will probably not get any higher scoring than the 20s. All the matchups stack up very evenly, making this a tough game to pick. However, since it is so evenly matched, I will pick the team that I trust more in this spot, and that team is Alabama. Alabama always seems to be able to beat Georgia, especially in the SEC Championship Game, where they have never lost to Georgia. I think that they have Georgia's number. Alabama's recent run against Georgia also includes a win earlier this season Between the Hedges, by a score of 24-21. Since Alabama has beaten this team earlier this season, I will go with them to win the rematch as well. I think that Alabama will win this game and capture their fourth SEC Championship in the last six seasons. 

    Projected Final Score: Alabama 21, Georgia 17