BYU vs. Texas Tech: Big 12 Championship Game Preview

         BYU vs. Texas Tech: Big 12 Championship Game Preview 

    In the first Power Four Championship Game of Championship Week, BYU battles Texas Tech in the Big 12 Championship Game. This is another big game for the College Football Playoff race. The stakes and key matchups will be discussed here, as well as a prediction of who will win this game.  

    The Stakes:              For BYU in particular, this is a big game for their college football playoff hopes. They are 11-1, but their resume is relatively light for a Power Four team with that good of a record. Their best wins are a 33-27 win at Arizona, and a 24-21 win at home against Utah. Both of those teams are currently ranked, but, for an 11-1 team, it is not the best resume for the Cougars. As a result, while it is not a guarantee that they are out of the playoffs if they lose this game, it is likely. They need to win this game to feel good about their chances. As for Texas Tech, they would appear to be in the playoffs, even with a loss in this game. They are currently ranked No. 5 in the country, and it seems unlikely that a loss would drop them far enough to the point that they would be left out of the playoffs. Outside of a 26-23 loss to Arizona State on the road, they have beaten everyone else on their schedule by multiple possessions, including a dominant 29-7 victory over BYU earlier this season. They are most likely in either way. However, this game does matter to them from a seeding perspective. If they can win this game, it seems highly likely that they get a top four seed and a first round bye in the playoffs. If they lose this game, however, they might not even get to host a first round playoff game. They might have to play a first round playoff game on the road. Therefore, this game still has big playoff implications for the Red Raiders. Additionally, both teams are battling for the title of Big 12 Champions. This is both teams' first ever appearance in the Big 12 Championship Game. BYU just moved to the Big 12 a couple of years ago, while Texas Tech has been in the Big 12 for a while but, prior to this year, has never been able to make it over the hump and into the Big 12 Championship Game. Both teams would really love to receive the honor of being declared Big 12 Champions. BYU is also seeking revenge on Texas Tech for that regular season defeat, which is BYU's only loss on the year. 

    When BYU has the Ball:             When BYU is in possession of the football, their quarterback is Bear Bachmeier. He was never supposed to be the starting quarterback for the Cougars this year, but last year's starter, Jake Retzlaff, was kicked out of school for premarital sex, which violated the school's rules as a Morman school, leaving Bachmeier as the team's starting quarterback. So far this season, he has thrown 322 passes with 208 completions for 2,593 yards with 14 touchdowns and four interceptions. He averages 8.1 yards per attempt, so he is not the most efficient quarterback, but he is not terrible. He also has run the ball some this year, as he has carried the ball 137 times for 529 yards and 11 touchdowns this year. Again, he is not the most efficient runner, as he only averages 3.9 yards per carry, but he does run the ball. His leading receivers are Parker Kingston, who has 57 catches for 804 yards and five touchdowns on the year, and Chase Roberts, who has 44 receptions for 713 yards and five touchdowns on the year. However, overall, BYU is not a particularly good passing offense, as they only rank 78th in the country at 219.5 passing yards per game. On the ground, running back LJ Martin carries the load, as he has carried the ball 217 times for 1,229 yards and eleven touchdowns so far this year. Bachmeier is their second leading rusher, and there are no other significant contributors to BYU's rushing offense. Even with only two significant contributors, though, the Cougars still rank 23rd in the country in rushing offense, rushing for 194.5 yards per game. The running game is the decided strength of this BYU offense. BYU ranks 24th in the country in scoring offense, averaging 33.7 points per game, but only rank 43rd in the country in total offense, 414.0 yards per game. They will be going up against an elite Texas Tech defense that ranks 3rd in the country in scoring defense, only giving up 11.3 points per game, and 6th in the country in total defense, only giving up 258.9 yards per game. Their leader in tackles is linebacker Jacob Rodriguez, who has 101 tackles on the season, and who also ranks second on the team in interceptions with four. He is not the only good linebacker on this team, though, as the Red Raiders have a deep group of linebackers. Perhaps the most notable of these is David Bailey, who leads the team with 12.5 sacks among his 37 tackles. Romello Height is another one, as he is second on the team with 8.5 sacks and 31 tackles. Other good ones include Ben Roberts and John Curry. Along the defensive line, they are led by A.J. Holmes Jr., who has 35 tackles and 3.5 sacks, Lee Hunter, who has 31 tackles and three sacks, and Jayden Cofield, who has 23 tackles and 1.5 sacks. Texas Tech leads the country in rushing defense, only giving up 68.9 rushing yards per game. It is hard to get anything going on the ground against this defense. In the secondary, they are led by Brice Pullock, who has 41 tackles and who leads the team with five interceptions. Another defensive back, Cole Wisniewski, ranks third on the team with 67 tackles. Brendan Jordan also has 46 tackles, while Dontae Balfour has 23 tackles and five passes defended. Texas Tech's passing defense is not nearly as good as their rushing defense, as they only rank 27th in the country in passing defense, giving up 190.0 passing yards per game. However, this is still an extremely good overall defense that the Red Raiders have. In the matchup game, BYU's solid rushing offense will be tested against Texas Tech's elite rushing defense. The Cougars running game will have to show up if they want to score against the Red Raiders' stifling defense. Bear Bachmeier will also have to hit some throws. 

    When Texas Tech has the Ball:          When Texas Tech is on the offensive, they are led by quarterback Behren Morton. Morton, despite missing a few games, has put up decent numbers, as he has thrown 267 passes with 181 completions for 2,428 yards with 20 touchdowns and four interceptions. He has been fairly efficient, averaging 9.1 yards per attempt. His leading receiver is Caleb Douglas, who has caught 53 passes for 823 yards and seven touchdowns on the year. The other two starting wide receivers are Reggie Virgil, who has 47 catches for 590 yards and six touchdowns this season, and Coy Eakin, who has 44 catches for 560 yards and four touchdowns this year. The Red Raiders rank 9th in the country in passing offense, averaging 295.6 passing yards per game. On the ground, Texas Tech has two solid running backs in Cameron Dickey and J'Koby Williams. Dickey is the featured back, as he has carried the ball 180 times for 1,023 yards and 13 touchdowns on the year. Williams has been a solid option too, as he has carried the football 127 times for 707 yards and six touchdowns so far this season. Texas Tech ranks 25th in the country in rushing offense, as they average 193.6 rushing yards per game. Overall, Texas Tech ranks 3rd in the country in scoring offense, averaging 43.2 points per game, and 4th in total offense, averaging 489.2 yards per game. This is an excellent offense, which is difficult to stop for most teams. However, the defense that they are going up against in this game is a good unit, as BYU ranks 14th in the country in total defense, giving up 17.8 points per game, and 31st in the country in total defense, giving up 324.6 yards per game. At linebacker, they are led by Isaiah Glasker, Jack Kelly, and Siale Esera. Glasker is second on the team with 54 tackles, while Kelly is third on the team with 52 tackles, and leads the team with nine sacks. Esera is sixth on the team with 42 tackles. Along the defensive line, their starters are Logan Latui, who has 40 tackles, John Taumoepeau, who has 36 tackles, Boodie Schoonover, who has 27 tackles, and Keanu Tanuvasa, who has 24 tackles. BYU's rushing defense isn't top-notch, but it is solid, as they give up 119.0 rushing yards per game. In the secondary, the Cougars are led by safeties Faletau Satuala, who leads the team with 70 tackles and is tied for third on the team with three interceptions, and Tanner Wall, who is tied for third on the team with 52 tackles and is tied for the team lead with four interceptions. Cornerback Evan Johnson has 40 tackles and is tied for the team lead with four interceptions. His sidekick, Therrian Alexander III, has five passes defended and one interception. BYU's passing defense ranks 44th in the country, giving up 205.6 passing yards per game. Overall, this Cougars defense is good, but is it good enough to stop Texas Tech's offense? BYU will have to play their best game defensively to get stops. If Texas Tech can get the ground game going, that will really open up opportunities downfield for the Red Raiders. Texas Tech needs to play a balanced game. 

    Prediction:        This is an interesting, high stakes game. However, for the prediction, it is helpful to look back to when these two teams played each other during the regular season. In that game, Texas Tech dominated, winning 29-7. Again, BYU needs to run the ball well to score on Texas Tech, as that is their offensive strength. In that first meeting, they were only able to rush for 67 yards, and, as a result, only scored seven points. I have a hard time picking BYU to win this game, given all of that. Additionally, Texas Tech has the better stats almost across the board. When I look at the stats, I almost question how these teams have the same record. For all these reasons, I think that Texas Tech will win this game. I don't think that BYU will be able to score much. It won't be quite as much of a blowout as last time, but I think that Texas Tech will win fairly comfortably. 

    Projected Final Score:      Texas Tech 28, BYU 14