Duke vs. Virginia: ACC Championship Game Preview

         Duke vs. Virginia: ACC Championship Game Preview

    Championship Week continues on Saturday night with the ACC Championship Game between Duke and No. 17 Virginia. This game has high stakes, with implications not only for these two teams, but for several teams throughout the country. All the critical matchups, the stakes, and a prediction will be discussed here. 

    The Stakes:           For Virginia, the stakes of this game are simple: win and they are in the College Football Playoffs, lose and they will be left out. The reason for this is that the five highest ranked conference champions automatically make the playoffs. If Virginia wins this game, they are a virtual lock to be one of the five highest ranked conference champions, and therefore they are a virtual lock to make the playoffs.  If they lose this game, though, they will not be highly ranked enough to get in. For Duke, the playoff implications are a bit more complicated. A Duke victory here would be how chaos could happen. If the Blue Devils pull off the upset, they could potentially make the playoffs, but other things would need to happen as well. If Duke wins here, but James Madison defeats Troy in the Sun Belt Championship Game, then James Madison would make the playoffs over Duke, with two Group of Five teams making the playoffs. If Duke wins, Troy upsets James Madison, and UNLV defeats Boise State in the Mountain West Championship Game, then it would be close between Duke and UNLV for the final playoff spot. If Duke wins, Troy upsets James Madison, and Boise State upsets UNLV, that is the scenario where Duke, despite having five losses, would be able to feel comfortable about making the playoffs. In addition to the playoff implications, both teams are also seeking their first-ever ACC Championship. Virginia is in their second-ever ACC Championship Game and their first since 2019, where they lost to Clemson. Duke is in their second-ever ACC Championship Game and their first since 2013, where they lost to Florida State. Duke is also seeking revenge on the Cavaliers for the blowout loss that Virginia dealt them when these two teams met in the regular season. 

    When Duke has the Ball:            When Duke has possession of the ball, their quarterback is Darian Mensah. On the season, Mensah has thrown 484 passes with 286 completions for 3,450 yards with 28 touchdowns and just four interceptions. He is decently efficient, but not exceptionally efficient, as he averages 8.1 yards per attempt. His leading receiver is Cooper Barkate, who has 63 receptions for 978 yards and six touchdowns so far this year. Que-Sean Brown, who has 52 catches for 665 yards and three touchdowns, and Sahmir Hagans, who has 35 catches for 432 yards and six touchdowns, are the other two starting wide receivers. Tight end Jeremiah Hasley also contributes some to the passing game, as he has 31 catches for 385 yards and three touchdowns. Overall, the passing attack is Duke's strength, as the Blue Devils average 289.3 passing yards per game, good for 12th in the country. In the ground game, Duke's main running back is Nate Sheppard, who has carried the ball 157 times for 865 yards and nine touchdowns so far this season. Andersen Castle is a solid backup running back, as he has 94 carries for 435 yards and 11 touchdowns on the year. However, Duke's overall rushing offense is mediocre, as they only rank 96th in the country in rushing offense, only averaging 132.1 rushing yards per game. On the whole, Duke ranks tied for 19th in the country in scoring offense, averaging 34.6 points per game, and 34th in the country in total offense, averaging 421.4 total yards per game. They will be facing a Virgina defense that ranks 24th in the country in scoring defense, giving up 20.0 points per game. At linebacker, they are led by Kam Robinson, who is second on the team with 64 tackles, is seventh on the team with two sacks, and leads the team with two interceptions, James Jackson, who is third on the team with 55 tackles, and Maddox Marcellus, who is fifth on the team with 42 tackles, eighth on the team with 1.5 sacks, and has one interception. Along the defensive line, their biggest contributors are Fisher Carmac, who has 38 tackles and is third on the team with 4.5 sacks, Mitchell Melton, who has 37 tackles and is second on the team with five sacks, and Daniel Rickert, who has 34 tackles and leads the team with six sacks. Jacob Holmes, who has 28 tackles and 2.5 sacks, Jahmeer Carter, who has 27 tackles and no sacks, Jason Hammond, who has 26 tackles and 2.5 sacks, and Anthony Britton, who has 26 tackles and no sacks, also play for a significant amount of time along the line. The Cavaliers' rushing defense ranks 21st in the country, giving up 108.3 rushing yards per game. In the secondary, safety Devin Neal leads the team in tackles with 70 and is tied for second on the team with six passes defended. Ethan Minter is the other starting safety, and he is fourth on the team with 45 tackles, 3 passes defended, and one interception. At cornerback, Christian Charles and Donovan Platt are tied for second on the team with six passes defended, while Emmanuel Karnley leads the team with seven. Charles also is sixth on the team with 41 tackles, while Platt has one interception. Ja'son Prevard has five passes defended and leads the team with three interceptions. Virginia ranks 43rd in the country in passing defense, giving up 203.4 passing yards per game. Overall, the Cavaliers rank 23rd in the country in total defense, giving up 311.7 total yards per game. Matchup wise, Duke will need to rely on the passing game more than ever in this spot. Virginia defends the run fairly well, and Duke is not very good at running the football. Virginia's defense is not bad against the pass either, but the passing game has been Duke's strength all season, and it will have to primarily remain that way, though Duke will have to find a way to do something in the running game. 

    When Virginia has the Ball:           When Virginia has possession of the ball, their quarterback is Chandler Morris. On the season, Morris has been more of a game manager, as he has thrown 358 passes with 236 completions for 2,586 yards with 14 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He is not particularly efficient, averaging 7.2 yards per attempt. He has also carried the ball 58 times for 248 yards and five touchdowns. His top receiving target is Trell Harris, who has caught 56 passes for 809 yards and five touchdowns so far this season. The other two starting wide receivers for the Cavaliers are Jahmal Edrine, who has 39 catches for 484 yards and one touchdown, and Cam Ross, who has 43 catches for 459 yards and two touchdowns. Virginia's passing offense averages 244.5 yards per game, good for 53rd in the country. In the running game, they are led by running back J'Mari Taylor. So far this season, Taylor has carried the ball 207 times for 997 yards and 14 touchdowns.  Harrison Waylee is a solid backup, having 57 carries for 422 yards and five touchdowns this season. The Cavaliers have the 34th best rushing offense in the country, as they average 188.7 rushing yards per game. Overall, Virginia ranks 27th in the country in scoring offense, averaging 33.2 points per game, and 26th in the country in total offense, averaging 433.2 total yards per game. This offense isn't great at anything, but they are decently well-rounded. They are up against a Duke defense that has had its struggles this season, as they are tied for 97th in the country in scoring defense, giving up 29.4 points per game. Their main contributors at linebacker are Luke Mergott, who ranks third on the team with 72 tackles, Jaiden Francois, who ranks fourth on the team with 70 tackles, Tre Freeman, who ranks sixth on the team with 45 tackles and is also tied for the team lead with two interceptions, and Kendell Johnson, who is tied for tenth on the team with 32 tackles. Along the defensive line, their starting tackles are Josiah Green and Aaron Hall. Green is tied for seventh on the team with 35 tackles and second on the team with 3.5 sacks, while Hall is ninth on the team with 34 tackles and third on the team with 2.5 sacks. At defensive end, their starters are Wesley Williams and Vincent Anthony Jr. Williams is tied for seventh on the team with 35 tackles and tied for fourth on the team with two sacks, and Anthony Jr. is tied for tenth on the team with 32 tackles and leads the team with 6.5 sacks. Duke's rushing defense ranks 53rd in the country, giving up 140.8 rushing yards per game. In the secondary, starting at safety for the Blue Devils are Caleb Weaver and DeShawn Stone. Weaver leads the team in tackles with 78, while Stone is second with 73. Stone is also tied for the team lead in interceptions with two. Their best cornerback is Chandler Rivers, who is fifth on the team with 51 tackles, leads the team with eight passes defended, and is tied for the team lead with two interceptions. Kimari Robinson, who has 32 tackles and two passes defended, Kendall Johnson, who has 32 tackles and one pass defended, and Moussa Kane, who has 17 tackles and is tied for the team lead with two interceptions, are the other contributors at cornerback. The passing defense is where Duke's defense really struggles, as they rank 131st in the FBS in that category, giving up 273.3 passing yards per game. Overall, Duke ranks 111th in the country in total defense, giving up 414.1 total yards per game. From a matchup standpoint, even though Morris isn't particularly efficient for Virginia, he has a chance to have a good game against a really poor Duke pass defense. If Virginia's solid ground game can get going as well, then Duke is really going to have some problems. Duke needs to step up and play better defensively if they want to win this game. 

    Prediction:            This is an interesting matchup, and neither team is as elite as some of the other teams that are playing on Championship Week. However, there is one team that appears to be clearly better, and that team is Virginia. Duke has the better passing offense, but Virginia is better in every other category. While Virginia isn't an elite team, they are a well-rounded team, and I think that they will be able to take advantage of Duke's weaknesses. I think that, offensively, they will be able to both pass and run the ball well, and, defensively, they will be able to force all the pressure onto Mensah, and Mensah won't be able to handle it all by himself. Also, it is worth noting that Virginia beat Duke in Durham 34-17 earlier in the season. It will be a slightly closer game this time, but I think that Virginia will be able to get past Duke, win their first-ever ACC Championship, and punch their ticket to the College Football Playoff. 

    Projected Final Score:               Virgina 34, Duke 24