Indiana vs. Ohio State: Big Ten Championship Game Preview

         Indiana vs. Ohio State: Big Ten Championship Game Preview

    In the final time slot of Championship Week, Ohio State battles Indiana for the Big Ten Championship in an extremely high-profile matchup. This is the first time that No. 1 has played No. 2 in a conference championship game since No. 2 Alabama defeated No. 1 Florida 32-13 in the SEC Championship Game back in 2009. All the stakes and key matchups will be discussed here, along with a prediction. 

    The Stakes:           This game does not have quite as high of stakes as some of these other conference championship games, as both teams have pretty much clinched making the playoffs. Not only that, but both teams will likely get a top four seed, and therefore have a first round bye, regardless of whether they win or lose this game. Therefore, as far as the playoffs go, this game does not have the highest of stakes. It will determine who gets the No. 1 overall seed entering the playoffs, which is a great honor. Also, the winner is crowned Big Ten Champions, which is probably the main benefit of winning this game. For Ohio State, they are seeking their first Big Ten Championship since 2020. For Indiana, they are seeking their first Big Ten Championship since all the way back in 1967, when they split the championship with Purdue, and just their third-ever Big Ten Championship. Indiana also looks to snap a 30-game losing streak against Ohio State. 

    When Indiana has the Ball:               When Indiana has possession of the football, they are led by quarterback Fernando Mendoza. So far this season, he has thrown 293 passes with 211 completions for 2,758 yards with 32 touchdowns and just five interceptions. He has a 72.0 completion percentage and is averaging 9.4 yards per attempt, so he is efficient as well. His top targets are wide receivers Omar Cooper Jr. and Elijah Sarratt. Cooper Jr. has caught 58 passes for 804 yards and 11 touchdowns on the season, while Sarratt has 48 receptions for 650 yards and 11 touchdowns so far this year. EJ Williams Jr., who has caught 33 passes for 404 yards and five touchdowns this season, and Charlie Becker, who has caught 20 passes for 389 yards and two touchdowns this season, are solid players as well. Indiana's passing offense ranks tied for 41st in the country, as they average 254.1 passing yards per game. On the ground, Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black are a solid duo at running back. Hemby has carried the ball 163 times for 866 yards and six touchdowns so far this season, while Black has 127 carries for 729 yards and seven touchdowns on the season. Khobie Martin is a third option at running back, as he has carried the ball 69 times for 453 yards and six touchdowns this year. Mendoza has also run the ball some this year, though not particularly effectively, as he has 64 carries for 243 yards and six touchdowns this season. Indiana is an excellent running team, as they rank 9th in the country in rushing offense, averaging 229.8 rushing yards per game. Overall, this is an elite Indiana offense that ranks second in the country in scoring offense, averaging 44.3 points per game, and fifth in the country in total offense, averaging 483.8 total yards per game. They are relatively balanced as well, though their strength is the running game. They will be tested, however, against an absolutely dominant Ohio State defense that ranks first in the country in scoring defense, only giving up 7.8 points per game. At linebacker, they are led by Sonny Styles and Arvil Reese. Styles leads the team in tackles with 69, while Reese ranks second on the team in tackles with 61 and also ranks second on the team in sacks with 6.5. The defensive line is led by Cayden Curry, who is third on the team in tackles with 53 and leads the team in sacks with nine, Kayden McDonald, who is tied for fourth on the team in tackles with 52 and also has three sacks, and Kenyatta Jackson Jr., who has 24 tackles and is third on the team with 5.5 sacks. They also have a deep rotation of Tywone Malone Jr., Will Smith Jr., Eddrick Houston, Zion Grady, and Beau Atkinson. Ohio State's rushing defense ranks fourth in the country, as they only give up 81.7 rushing yards per game. In the secondary, the Buckeyes are led by safeties Caleb Downs and Jaylen McClain. Downs is considered one of the best players in the country, as he is tied for fourth on the team with 52 tackles, and also has a sack, a pass defended, and is tied for the team lead with two interceptions. He can line up almost anywhere on the defense, making him an elite weapon for the Buckeyes. McClain ranks sixth on the team with 42 tackles and has three passes defended. At cornerback, their main contributors are Davison Igbinosun, who ranks eighth on the team with 38 tackles, has an interception, and leads the team with six passes defended, Lorenzo Styles Jr., who ranks ninth on the team with 28 tackles, and has two passes defended, and Jermaine Matthews Jr., who has 18 tackles, two passes defended, and is tied for the team lead with two interceptions. Ohio State ranks first in the country in passing defense, as they only give up a meagre 121.3 passing yards per game, a full 19.8 yards less than the No. 2 passing defense in the country. It is almost impossible for anybody to put up good passing numbers against this defense. Overall, Ohio State only gives up 203.0 total yards per game, making them easily rank first in the country in total defense, as they give up 44.8 yards less than the No. 2 total defense in the country. As good as Indiana's offense is, it will be hard for them to score against this defense. Mendoza is a good quarterback, but he will probably not be able to play particularly well in this game, considering how elite Ohio State's passing defense is. Therefore, while Mendoza can't afford to play badly, much of Indiana's offensive production will have to come on the ground. The problem is, Ohio State is an elite rushing defense too. Indiana's strong rushing offense will have to find some way to penetrate Ohio State's rushing defense if the Hoosiers hope to move the ball at all against the Buckeyes. 

       When Ohio State has the Ball:             When Ohio State has the football, their quarterback is Julian Sayin. Sayin is just a sophomore, but he is already putting up really good numbers. So far this season, he has thrown 327 passes with 258 completions for 3,065 yards with 30 touchdowns and five interceptions. His 78.9 completion percentage is on pace to set the FBS record for best single-season completion percentage. He is averaging an efficient 9.4 yards per attempt. With all these stats, he has positioned himself firmly in the Heisman Trophy conversation. It helps that he has one of the best wide receiver duos in the country to throw to in Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate. Both have missed a couple of games due to injury, but are still putting up impressive numbers. Smith has caught 72 passes for 942 yards and 11 touchdowns this season, while Tate has 44 receptions for 793 yards and eight touchdowns on the year. Tight end Max Klare is putting up solid numbers as well, with 41 catches for 420 yards and two touchdowns this year. Ohio State has a solid passing offense, as they average 267.0 passing yards per game, good for 26th in the country. On the ground, the Buckeyes' leading running back is Bo Jackson. On the season, Jackson has carried the ball 151 times for 952 yards and five touchdowns. James Peoples, who has carried the ball 61 times for 344 yards and three touchdowns on the year, CJ Donalson, who has 89 carries for 330 yards and ten touchdowns so far this season, and Isaiah West, who has 56 carries for 306 yards and two touchdowns this year, also contribute at running back. The Buckeyes have the 53rd ranked rushing offense in the country, averaging 171.5 rushing yards per game. On the whole, Ohio State averages 37.0 points per game, good for 13th in the country, and 444.7 total yards per game, which ranks 24th in the country. Though Ohio State's strength is their defense, their offense is good as well. Indiana, meanwhile, has a defense that ranks second in the country in scoring defense, behind only Ohio State, only giving up 10.9 points per game. At linebacker, they are led by Rolijah Hardy, who leads the team with 77 tackles and also leads the team with seven sacks, Aiden Fisher, who is tied for second on the team with 70 tackles and is third on the team with two interceptions, and Isaiah Jones, who is fourth on the team with 59 tackles and third on the team with five sacks. The Hoosiers have a deep defensive line rotation, led by Stephen Daley, who has 32 tackles and is fourth on the team with 4.5 sacks, Tyrique Tucker, who has 28 tackles and is second on the team with 5.5 sacks, Hosea Wheeler, who has 28 tackles and no sacks, Kellen Wyatt, who has 28 tackles and 2.5 sacks, Mikail Kamara, who has 25 tackles and one sack, and Mario Landino, who has 23 tackles and is fifth on the team with four sacks. Indiana has a stifling rushing defense, as they rank second in the country in that category, only giving up 79.3 rushing yards per game. In the secondary, their main contributors are Louis Moore, who is tied for second on the team with 70 tackles and leads the team with five interceptions, Amare Ferrell, who is sixth on the team with 38 tackles, second on the team with six passes defended, and second on the team with four interceptions, Devan Boykin, who is fifth on the team with 46 tackles, tied for third on the team with four passes defended, and tied for third on the team with two interceptions, D'Angelo Ponds, who is seventh on the team with 37 tackles, leads the team with seven passes defended, and also has one interception, and Jamari Sharpe, who is eighth on the team with 35 tackles and is tied for third on the team with four passes defended. Indiana's passing defense isn't quite as good as their rushing defense, but it is still good, as it ranks 14th in the country, only giving up 172.5 passing yards per game. Overall, Indiana ranks 4th in the country in total defense, only giving up 251.8 total yards per game. I question is Ohio State will be able to run the ball well against this Indiana defense. Ohio State's rushing offense just isn't good enough. That puts a lot of pressure on Sayin to make things happen for this offense. Sayin is a very good quarterback, but how he handles that pressure will be key on how Ohio State's offense does in this matchup. 

    Prediction:                 This is an evenly matched game between two elite teams. Both have dominant defenses, but both also have very good offenses. However, I still expect this to be a relatively low-scoring game, due to the level of dominance of both of these defenses. I think that Mendoza is going to struggle in this game. I think that Indiana is going have to rely on their ground game here, though they might struggle even to do that. That being said, I am not sure if Ohio State's offense can do that much either. I don't see the Buckeyes' running attack being able to do much here, and I am not sure how Sayin will respond to all that pressure put on him. This is a very 50-50 game, and either team could easily win here. Therefore, I will pick the team that I trust more, and, in this case, that team is Ohio State. I feel like Ohio State is more ready for the moment, and that they will meet the pressure better. They have also beaten Indiana in each of the last 30 times that these teams have played each other, so I feel like I can't pick Indiana to beat Ohio State until I see it happen. For these reasons, I think that Ohio State will pull this win out in a very close, relatively low-scoring game. 

    Projected Final Score:       Ohio State 24, Indiana 21