Miami at Texas A&M: College Football Playoff First Round Game Preview

         Miami at Texas A&M: College Football Playoff First Round Game Preview

    The first round of the 2025 College Football Playoff continues on Saturday, December 20, as seventh-seeded Texas A&M hosts tenth-seeded Miami at 12:00 on ESPN. All the stakes, key matchups, and a prediction will be discussed here. 

    The Stakes:      The winner of this game faces the No. 2 seed, Ohio State, the defending national champions, on New Years' Day. Both of these teams are making their first ever College Football Playoff appearance. Miami is seeking their sixth National Championship and their first since 2001. Texas A&M, meanwhile, is seeking their second National Championship and their first since all the way back in 1939. Miami wants to prove that they belong in the playoff, as they only barely got in over Notre Dame in highly controversial fashion. The Hurricanes are looking to silence the doubters. 

    When Miami has the Ball:      When the Hurricanes have possession of the ball, they are led by quarterback Carson Beck. After transferring in from Georgia, Beck has had a solid first season for Miami, though he has had some bad games, such as four interceptions in their upset loss at Louisville. On the season, he has thrown 352 passes with 263 completions for 3,052 yards with 25 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He is also fairly efficient, averaging 8.7 yards per attempt. His top receiving target is Malachi Toney, who has 84 catches for 970 yards and seven touchdowns on the season. The other two starting wide receivers for the Hurricanes are Keelan Marion, who has 41 catches for 557 yards and one touchdown on the year, and CJ Daniels. who has 31 catches for 391 yards and seven touchdowns so far this season. Miami's passing offense ranks 18th in the nation, averaging 275.8 passing yards per game. In the ground game, they are led by running back Mark Fletcher Jr., who has 141 carries for 695 yards and ten touchdowns on the season. Their backup running backs are CharMar Brown, who has 100 carries for 389 yards and five touchdowns so far this year, Girard Pringle Jr., who has 58 carries for 362 yards and four touchdowns on the year. Miami's rushing offense is not particularly good, though, as they only rank 77th in the country in that category, averaging 150.0 rushing yards per game. Overall, the Hurricanes rank 20th in the country in scoring offense, averaging 34.1 points per game, and 29th in the country in total offense, averaging 425.8 total yards per game. They are up against a Texas A&M defense that is tied for 41st in scoring defense, giving up 21.9 points per game. At linebacker, the Aggies are led by Taurean York, who leads the team with 67 tackles and also has one sack, and Daymion Sanford, who is fourth on the team with 50 tackles and third on the team with 3.5 sacks, Along the defensive line, they are led by ferocious defensive end Cashius Howell, who ranks ninth on the team with 29 tackles, leads the team with 11.5 sacks, and ranks second on the team with six passes defended. Other contributors include Tyler Onyedim, who ranks fifth on the team with 45 tackles and has 1.5 sacks, Albert Regis, who ranks sixth on the team with 43 tackles and has two sacks, T.J. Searcy, who ranks tenth on the team with 28 tackles and has 1.5 sacks, DJ Hicks, who ranks twelfth on the team with 22 tackles and fourth on the team with three sacks, Marco Jones, who ranks thirteenth on the team with 20 tackles and fifth on the team with 2.5 sacks, and Dayon Hayes, who ranks fourteenth on the team with 18 tackles and second on the team with 4.5 sacks. Texas A&M ranks 38th in the country in rushing defense, giving up 127.1 rushing yards per game. In the secondary, their starting safeties are Marcus Ratcliffe, who is second on the team with 60 tackles, and Dalton Brooks, who is third on the team with 55 tackles, fourth on the team with three sacks, and tied for first on the team with one interception. At cornerback, their starters are Will Lee III, who is tied for sixth on the team with 43 tackles and leads the team with seven passes defended, Tyreek Campbell, who ranks eighth on the team with 34 tackles and fourth on the team with four passes defended, and Dezz Ricks, who is eleventh on the team with 23 tackles and third on the team with five passes defended. The Aggies give up 182.8 passing yards per game, good for 21st in the country. In total, Texas A&M gives up 309.8 total yards per game, which ranks 19th in the country. From a matchup standpoint, the strength of Miami's offense is the passing game. However, Texas A&M's passing defense is also slightly stronger than their rushing defense. This means that strength is pitted against strength when Miami's offense is on the field. If Miami is going to win this game, then Carson Beck can not afford to have one of his bad games like he had against Louisville. To take the weight off of Beck's shoulders, though, the running game also has to step up for the Hurricanes. 

    When Texas A&M has the Ball:           When Texas A&M has the ball, they are led by quarterback Marcell Reed. On the season, Reed has thrown 338 passes with 209 completions for 2,932 yards with 25 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. As he is averaging 8.7 yards per attempt, he is a pretty efficient quarterback. He has carried the ball 89 times for 466 yards and six touchdowns on the year as well. He did struggle in the Aggies' loss at Texas in their most recent game, though, going 20/32 for 180 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions, so he needs to get his act back together. He has one of the better wide receiving duos in the country to throw to in KC Concepcion, who has 57 catches for 886 yards and nine touchdowns so far this season, and Mario Craver, who has 52 catches for 825 yards and four touchdowns on the year. Ashton Bethel-Roman is a solid third option and a dangerous deep threat, as he has 20 catches for 459 yards and five touchdowns this season. Overall, Texas A&M averages 261.8 passing yards per game, good for 34th in the country. In the ground game, their starting running back is Reuben Owens II, who has carried the ball 112 times for 618 yards and five touchdowns so far this season. Le'Veon Moss is the backup running back for the Aggies, as he has carried the ball 70 times for 389 times and six touchdowns. Texas A&M ranks 25th in the country in rushing offense, averaging 192.7 rushing yards per game. Overall, the Aggies rank 14th in the country in scoring offense, averaging 36.3 points per game, and 20th in the country in total offense, averaging 454.4 total yards per game. This is a good, well-rounded offense. Miami's defense, on the other hand, ranks 6th in the country in scoring defense, only giving up 13.8 points per game. At linebacker, their starters are Mohamed Toure, who leads the team for 54 tackles, and Wesley Bissainthe, who is tied for fourth on the team with 46 tackles. Raul Aguirre Jr., who is tied for the ninth on the team with 33 tackles, and Chase Smith, who is tied for eleventh on the team with 24 tackles, are solid reserves. Along the defensive line, they are led by Akheem Mesidor, who is tied for fourth on the team with 46 tackles and leads the team with seven sacks, and Reuben Bain Jr., who ranks seventh on the team with 37 tackles and tied for second on the team with 4.5 sacks. Other key contributors include David Blay Jr., who ranks fourteenth on the team with 25 tackles and has no sacks, Ahmad Moten Sr., who ranks seventeenth on the team with 23 tackles and tied for second on the team with 4.5 sacks, Justin Scott, who ranks eighteenth on the team with 19 tackles and has one sack, Marquise Lightfoot, who ranks nineteenth on the team with 18 tackles and has 1.5 sacks, and Armondo Blount, who is tied for twentieth on the team with 13 tackles and is fifth on the team with 2.5 sacks. Overall, Miami's rushing defense is elite, as they rank seventh in the country in that category, only giving up 86.8 rushing yards per game. In the secondary, the Hurricanes are led by safeties Jakobe Thomas, who is second on the team with 48 tackles, tied for fourth on the team with three sacks, fourth on the team with four passes defended, and is tied for first on the team with four interceptions, and Zechariah Poyser, who is third on the team with 47 tackles, and tied for second on the team with five passes defended. At cornerback and nickel back, their starters are Keionte Scott, who is sixth on the team with 44 tackles, tied for fourth on the team with three sacks, and tied for second on the team with five passes defended, Xavier Lucas, who is eighth on the team with 35 tackles and leads the team with six passes defended, and Bryce Fitzgerald, who is eighteenth on the team with 15 tackles and tied for first on the team with four interceptions. Damari Brown, who is tied for eleventh on the team with 24 tackles, is a solid contributor as well. Miami ranks 30th in the country in passing defense, giving up 182.8 passing yards per game. Overall, the Hurricanes rank 11th in the country in total defense, giving up 277.8 total yards per game. From a matchup standpoint, these are both really good units who will be going at it against each other. However, even though Texas A&M is a solid rushing offense, it wouldn't surprise me if they struggled to run the ball here, given how good Miami's rushing defense is. This means that it may be on Marcell Reed to use his athleticism to make plays with his arm. Though the Aggies will need to do something running the ball as well, how well Reed can make those kinds of plays will be the big key here. 

    Prediction:           This is a very evenly matched game, perhaps the best matchup of the four games in the first round of the College Football Playoff. I can easily see either team winning, and I had a difficult time picking this game. However, in the end, I decided to go with Miami in a slight upset. I think that Miami's elite defense will be able to slow down this Texas A&M offense. I think that the Aggies' rushing attack will struggle here, due to Miami's dominant rush defense, and that Marcell Reed won't be able to do it all by himself. Offensively for the Hurricanes, I think that Carson Beck will be able to do just enough to get Miami to score enough points to outscore Texas A&M. Even though it is at Kyle Field, and even though Texas A&M plays in the harder conference, I have Miami winning this one. 

    Projected Final Score:           Miami 28, Texas A&M 24