Miami vs. Ohio State: College Football Playoff Quarterfinal Cotton Bowl Game Preview

 Miami vs. Ohio State: College Football Playoff Quarterfinal Cotton Bowl Game Preview

    The College Football Playoff Quarterfinals kick off on New Years' Eve when tenth-seeded Miami faces the No. 2 seed, Ohio State, in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic. All the key matchups and stakes for this intriguing game will be broken down here. 

    The Stakes:    The winner of this game moves on to the College Football Playoff Semifinals, to take on the winner of the Sugar Bowl between Ole Miss and Georgia. The losers' season is over, with their playoff run ending in the quarterfinal round. For Miami, this would be their first-ever College Football Playoff Semifinal appearance. The Hurricanes haven't won the National Championship since 2001. Ohio State, meanwhile, is seeking their seventh College Football Playoff Semifinal appearance, and their fifth in the last seven seasons. Ohio State is trying to win back-to-back National Championships for the first time in program history. This is also a rematch of the 2002 National Championship Game, where Ohio State upset defending champion Miami 31-24 in double overtime. 23 years later, Miami looks to return the favor. 

    When Miami has the Ball:        When Miami has the ball, they will be led by quarterback Carson Beck. On the season, Beck has thrown 372 passes with 277 completions for 3,175 yards with 26 touchdowns and ten interceptions. He is solidly but not spectacularly efficient, as he averages 8.5 yards per attempt. He did not have his best game in their first-round win over Texas A&M, as he went 14 for 20 with 103 yards and one touchdown. His top target is star freshman wide receiver Malachi Toney, who has caught 89 passes for 992 yards and eight touchdowns this season. One of those touchdowns was the go-ahead touchdown pass with about two minutes left against Texas A&M, which turned out to be the game-winner. The other two starting wide receivers for the Hurricanes are Keelan Marion, who has 44 catches for 590 yards and one touchdown on the year, and CJ Daniels, who has caught 37 passes for 420 yards and seven touchdowns so far this season. Miami ranks 32nd in the country in passing offense, averaging 262.5 passing yards per game. In the ground game, their starting running back is Mark Fletcher Jr., who has 158 carries for 857 yards and ten touchdowns this season. Backing up Fletcher are CharMar Brown, who has carried the ball 100 times for 389 yards and five touchdowns this year, and Girard Pringle Jr., who has 59 carries for 363 yards and four touchdowns on the season. The Hurricanes average 151.9 rushing yards per game, good for 76th in the country. Overall, Miami ranks 30th in the country in scoring offense, averaging 32.2 points per game, and 35th in the country in total offense, averaging 414.5 total yards per game. They are up against an absolutely elite Ohio State that ranks first in the country in scoring defense, only giving up 8.2 points per game. At linebacker, they are led by Sonny Styles, who leads the team in tackles with 81 and tied for fourth on the team with one interception, Arvell Reese, who ranks second on the team with 62 tackles and tied for second on the team with 6.5 sacks. Payton Pierce is a solid backup, who ranks seventh on the team with 42 tackles and tied for fourth on the team with one interception. They are loaded along the defensive line as well, led by end Caden Curry, who ranks tied for third on the team with 60 tackles and first on the team with 11 sacks, tackle Kayden McDonald, who ranks fifth on the team with 57 tackles and fourth on the team with three sacks, end Kenyatta Jackson Jr., who ranks tenth on the team with 27 tackles and tied for second on the team with 6.5 sacks, Tywone Malone Jr., who is eleventh on the team with 25 tackles, Will Smith Jr., who is thirteenth on the team with 18 tackles, Eddrick Houston, who is fourteenth on the team with 16 tackles and fifth on the team with 1.5 sacks, Zion Grady, who is tied for sixteenth on the team with 12 tackles and tied for fifth on the team with one sack, and Beau Atkinson, who is eighteenth on the team with 11 tackles and tied for fifth on the team with one sack. Ohio State's rushing defense ranks fifth in the country, as they only give up 84.5 rushing yards per game. In the secondary, the Buckeyes are loaded as well, led by star safety Caleb Downs, who is tied for third on the team with 60 tackles, tied for sixth on the team with one sack, and tied for first on the team with two interceptions. Alongside Downs at safety is Jaylen McClain, who is sixth on the team with 50 tackles. At cornerback, their starters are Davison Igbinosun, who is tied for seventh on the team with 42 tackles, leads the team with six passes defended, and is tied for first on the team with two interceptions, Lorenzo Styles Jr., who is ninth on the team with 30 tackles, and Jermaine Matthews Jr., who ranks twelfth on the team with 20 tackles and tied for first on the team with two interceptions. The Buckeyes have the best passing defense in the country, as they only give up 129.1 passing yards per game. Overall, Ohio State has the best total defense in the country, as they only give up 213.5 total yards per game. From a matchup standpoint, Carson Beck absolutely has to bring his best game if Miami is going to move the ball here. Against Ohio State's dominant passing defense, he will have to find a way to complete some big throws. Miami's running offense, led by Fletcher, who had a big game against Texas A&M, will also have to find some holes. 

    When Ohio State has the Ball:           When Ohio State has the ball, their quarterback is Julian Sayin. As a redshirt freshman this season, Sayin has thrown 356 passes with 279 completions for 3,323 yards with 31 touchdowns and six interceptions. He has completed an astounding 78.4 percent of his passes, and is averaging 9.3 yards per attempt. It helps that he has one of the top wide receiver duos in the country to throw the ball to, in Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate. Smith has caught 80 passes for 1,086 yards and 11 touchdowns this season, while Tate has 48 catches for 838 yards and nine touchdowns on the year. Max Klare has been a solid receiving tight end for the Buckeyes as well, as he has caught 43 passes for 448 yards and two touchdowns on the season. Ohio State ranks 25th in the country in passing offense, averaging 266.8 passing yards per game. On the ground, the Buckeyes are led by running back Bo Jackson, who has 168 carries for 1,035 yards and five touchdowns this season, averaging an excellent 6.2 yards per carry. James Peoples, who has 61 carries for 344 yards and three touchdowns on the season, goal-line specialist CJ Donaldson, who has 89 carries for 330 yards and ten touchdowns on the year, and Isaiah West, who has 59 carries for 310 yards and two touchdowns this season, are the three backup running backs. Ohio State's rushing attack ranks 63rd in the country, averaging 162.8 rushing yards per game. Overall, Ohio State ranks 16th in the country in scoring offense, averaging 34.9 points per game, and 24th in the country in total offense, averaging 429.5 total yards per game. Miami's defense, meanwhile, ranks 4th in the country in scoring defense, only giving up 13.0 points per game. At linebacker, their main contributors are Mohamed Toure, who leads the team with 62 tackles and is tied for third on the team with four passes defended, Wesley Bissainthe, who is fourth on the team with 53 tackles and is tied for second on the team with one interception, Raul Aguirre Jr., who is ninth on the team with 37 tackles, and Chase Smith, who is tenth on the team with 28 tackles. Along the defensive line, the Hurricanes have a ferocious pass rush led by Akheem Mesidor, who is sixth on the team with 51 tackles and leads the team with 8.5 sacks, Rueben Bain, who is seventh on the team with 42 tackles and second on the team with 7.5 sacks, David Blay Jr., who is eleventh on the team with 27 tackles, Ahmad Moten Sr., who is tied for twelfth on the team with 24 tackles and fourth on the team with 4.5 sacks, Justin Scott, who is fourteenth on the team with 21 tackles and tied for eighth on the team with one sack, Marquise Lightfoot, who is fifteenth on the team with 20 tackles and seventh on the team with 1.5 sacks, and Armondo Blount, who is tied for seventeenth on the team with 15 tackles and sixth on the team with 2.5 sacks. Miami has the seventh-best rushing defense in the country, only giving up 87.0 yards per game. In the secondary, they are led by Jakobe Thomas, who is second on the team with 57 tackles, fifth on the team with 3.5 sacks, tied for fourth on the team with four passes defended, and second on the team with four interceptions, Keionte Scott, who is third on the team with 54 tackles, third on the team with five sacks, tied for second on the team with five passes defended, and tied for second on the team with one interception, Zechariah Poyser, who is tied for fourth on the team with 53 tackles, tied for eighth on the team with one sack, and tied for second on the team with five passes defended, Xavier Lucas, who is eighth on the team with 39 tackles, tied for eighth on the team with one sack, leads the team with seven passes defended, and tied for second on the team with one interception, Damari Brown, who ranks twelfth on the team with 24 tackles, Ethan O'Conner, who is sixteenth on the team with 17 tackles, and Bryce Fitzgerald, who is tied for seventeenth on the team with 15 tackles, and leads the team with six interceptions, including two interceptions against Texas A&M, one of which was the game-sealing pick. The Hurricanes rank 32nd in the country in passing defense, giving up 194.5 passing yards per game. Overall, Miami ranks 10th in the country in total defense, giving up 281.5 total yards per game. From a matchup perspective, Miami needs to generate pass rush in this game. If they don't, then Julian Sayin may be able to play well against a Miami secondary which is the weaker part of this defense. The front line is the most important part of this defense for Miami, as they need to stop the run and pressure Sayin. 

    Prediction:            This is an interesting game to kick off the 2025 CFP Quarterfinals. This should be a low-scoring game, as both teams have elite defenses. However, on the whole, I have to go with Ohio State to win this game. I have a hard time seeing how Miami is going to score a lot of points in this matchup, as Ohio State's defense is absolutely stifling. Ohio State has the best pass defense in the country, so I think that Carson Beck will struggle here. I don't think that the running game will be able to pick up the slack for the Hurricanes. I don't think that Ohio State will score a ton of points either, but I think that Julian Sayin will do enough for Ohio State to win. I think that Ohio State will win, advance to the CFP Semifinals for the fifth time in seven years, and keep the National Title defence alive for at least one more round. 

    Projected Final Score:         Ohio State 20, Miami 10