North Texas vs. Tulane: AAC Championship Game Preview

        North Texas vs. Tulane: AAC Championship Game Preview

    On Friday night, Championship Week kicks off with the AAC Championship Game between North Texas and Tulane. This is a critical match-up, not only for the AAC Championship, but this game has huge College Football Playoff implications as well. The stakes, critical match-ups, and predictions will all be discussed here. 

    The Stakes:            This is a huge game for the College Football Playoff picture, and the stakes for both teams are simple: win this game, and you are most likely in the College Football Playoff. Lose, and you are out. In the 12-team playoff format, the five highest ranked conference champions get automatic bids to the playoff. The winner of this game will, more than likely, be one of the five highest ranked conference champions, and will thus be in the playoff. The loser, though, won't be anywhere near the top 12, and will thus be left out. The stakes could not get any higher for both sides. Additionally, the winner gets to be crowned as AAC champions. Tulane is seeking their first ACC Championship since 2022, when they not only won the AAC, but got to be the Group of Five representative in a New Years Six Bowl, where they upset USC. North Texas is seeking their first ever AAC Championship, having just moved to the AAC from Conference USA. 

    When North Texas has the Ball:       When North Texas has the ball, they are led by star quarterback Drew Mestemaker. On the season, Mestemaker has thrown 382 passes with 271 completions for 3,835 yards with 29 touchdowns and just four interceptions. He has also been efficient, averaging exactly ten yards per attempt. His favorite target is star wide receiver Wyatt Young. Young, on the year, has caught 62 passes for 1,203 yards and ten touchdowns. He is a dangerous deep threat, averaging 19.4 yards per reception. Cameron Dorner is another solid receiver, having 44 receptions for 769 yards and six touchdowns so far this season. This North Texas passing offense is extremely dynamic, averaging 325.7 passing yards per game, which ranks 2nd in the country. On the ground, the Mean Green have a star running back in Caleb Hawkins. So far this season, Hawkins has carried the ball 193 times for 1,216 yards and 23 touchdowns, averaging 6.3 yards per carry. North Texas' rushing offense isn't quite as dominant as their passing offense, but it is still solid, averaging 186.1 rushing yards per game, which is tied for 38th in the country. Overall, North Texas ranks 1st in the country in both scoring and total offense, averaging 46.8 points and 511.8 yards per game, respectively. This is an elite offense that will be tough to stop for almost any defense. They will be up against a Tulane defense that has been solid but unspectacular this season, giving up 22.8 points per game, which ranks 51st in the country. In the front seven, they are led by linebacker Chris Rodgers, who is tied for the team lead with 68 tackles. Sam Howard and Dickson Agu, two of their other linebackers, have 40 and 36 tackles, respectively. Harvey Dyson and Jordan Norman, two more linebackers, are tied for the team lead with six sacks. Along the defensive line, Tre'Von McAlpine, Cameron Hamilton, Santana Hooper, and Geordon Guidry lead the way for the Green Wave. Overall, Tulane's run defense is solid. In the secondary, corner-backs Javion White and Jaheim Johnson are tied for the team lead in interceptions with three. Safety Jack Tchienchou is tied for the team lead with 68 tackles, while fellow safety Bailey Despanie is third on the team with 53 tackles. Tulane's pass defense in general is pretty weak, though, giving up 251.9 passing yards per game. In total, the Green Wave give up 372.3 total yards per game. Matchup wise, Tulane needs to figure out some way to stop this high-powered North Texas offense. Their run defense is fairly strong, so they could potentially keep Caleb Hawkins in check. However, they need to have their secondary step up to stop Drew Mestemaker, Wyatt Young, and this prolific North Texas passing offense. For North Texas, they need to take advantage and let their passing game be dominant in this matchup. If they can get Hawkins going, that would add another element to this offense and open up even more downfield shots in the passing game. 

    When Tulane has the Ball:           When Tulane has the ball, their quarterback is Jake Retzlaff. After being kicked off BYU's team for premarital sex, which violated BYU's school rules as a Morman school, he wound up at Tulane, where, on the year, he has thrown 334 passes with 209 completions for 2,717 yards with 14 touchdowns and six interceptions. He is not the most efficient quarterback, as he averages 8.1 yards per attempt. However, he is a dual-threat quarterback, as he also leads Tulane in rushing with 103 carries for 561 yards and 14 touchdowns. His leading receiver is Shazz Preston, who has 36 catches for 582 yards and four touchdowns on the year. Other wide receivers who have contributed this year for the Green Wave include Anthony Brown-Stephens, who has 34 catches for 444 yards and two touchdowns, Omari Hayes, who has 32 catches for 442 yards and one touchdown, and Bryce Bohanon, who has 31 catches for 417 yards and two touchdowns. Tulane ranks 48th in the country in passing offense, averaging 248.4 passing yards per game. On the ground, Retzlaff does lead the team in rushing, but the Green Wave's starting running back is Javin Gordon, who has carried the ball 111 times for 479 yards and five touchdowns on the year. Jamauri McClure, who has carried the ball 46 times for 335 yards and one touchdown so far this year, and Arnold Barnes III, who has carried the ball 49 times for 211 yards and no touchdowns on the season, have also contributed at running back this season. The Green Wave average 167.8 rushing yards per game, which ranks 61st in the country. Overall, Tulane is 61st in the country in scoring offense, averaging 28.7 points per game. They have several solid players but no spectacular ones. North Texas' defense, meanwhile, has been somewhere in the middle of the pack this year, as they give up 24.5 points per game, which ranks 65th in the country. Their leading tacklers are linebackers Ethan Wesloski, who leads the team with 97 tackles, and Trey Fields, who is second on the team with 92 tackles. Their leader in sacks is defensive end Ethan Day, who has 4.5 sacks, along with 44 tackles. Overall though, North Texas' rushing defense is bad, giving up 207.9 rushing yards per game, which ranks near the bottom of all the teams in the FBS. In the secondary, the main contributors at safety are Patrick Smith-Young, who has 63 tackles this year, Will Jones II, who has 60 tackles and two interceptions this year, and Quinton Hammonds, who has 49 tackles and two interceptions this year. At cornerback, David Fisher has 42 tackles, six passes defended, and one interception, while De'Veawn Armstead has 36 tackles, four passes defended, and two interceptions. The Mean Green's passing defense is much better than their rushing defense, as they only give up 164.7 passing yards per game, which ranks 10th in the country. Overall, North Texas gives up 372.6 yards per game. As far as matchups go, Tulane must take advantage of North Texas' poor rushing defense. Jake Retzlaff and the Green Wave's group of solid but unspectacular group of running backs must have a big game is Tulane wants to move the ball. Tulane must also find a way to get at least a couple big pass plays against a strong North Texas pass defense. Tulane's main way of moving the ball, though, should be on the ground. 

    Prediction:           This is an interesting matchup with extremely high stakes. Overall, though, I like North Texas in this game. Their offense is one of the best in the country, and they should be able to move the ball against a merely average Tulane defense. I think that Drew Mestemaker will have a big game here, and that the Mean Green will be able to put up points. On the other side of the ball, I don't think that Tulane will be able to keep up, as they don't have the offensive stars that North Texas does. North Texas' rushing defense is concerning, and I think that Tulane will be able to have a good day on the ground. However, I don't think that Tulane will be able to get enough out of the passing game, considering how good North Texas' passing defense is. For all of these reasons, I have North Texas winning this game, winning the AAC, and more than likely punching their ticket in to the College Football Playoff. 

        Projected Final Score:           North Texas 38, Tulane 31