Troy vs. James Madison: Sun Belt Championship Game Preview

         Troy vs. James Madison: Sun Belt Championship Game Preview

       In one of the first two games of Championship Week, Troy does battle with No. 25 James Madison in the Sun Belt Championship Game on Friday night. Even though the Sun Belt is not a Power Four conference, this game has implications for the College Football Playoff Race. All the stakes, key matchups, and a prediction will be discussed here. 

    The Stakes:            This game has College Football Playoff implications for James Madison, as the Dukes still have a shot to get in. The five highest-ranked conference champions all get auto bids to the playoffs. Currently, James Madison sits at No. 25 in the committee rankings, just behind North Texas and Tulane, the two teams competing for the American Championship, and behind Virginia, one of the contestants in the ACC Championship Game. This means that they are currently the sixth-highest ranked potential conference champion, and, as such, would be left out of the playoffs. However, the other contestant in the ACC Championship Game, the Duke Blue Devils, are unranked. Duke is only 7-5, so they presumably aren't close to being ranked. This means that if Duke upsets Virginia in the ACC Championship Game, and James Madison wins this game, the Dukes will be the fifth highest-ranked conference champion, and will therefore get the auto bid to the playoffs. Thus, while James Madison needs some help to get into the playoffs, they are not out of the hunt by any means. There is also the Sun Belt Championship on the line for both teams. For Troy, this would be their third Sun Belt Championship in four years, as they won it in both 2022 and 2023. For James Madison, this would be their first Sun Belt Championship ever, having just moved to the Sun Belt from the FCS. 

    When Troy has the Ball:             When Troy has possession of the football, they are led by quarterback Goose Crowder. Crowder and Tucker Kilcrease have gone back and forth on who has been the starting quarterback for the Trojans all year, but, over the last couple of games, Crowder has been the starter. On the year, he has thrown 156 passes with 97 completions for 1,118 yards with 11 touchdowns and five interceptions. He has not been particularly efficient, as he has only averaged 7.2 yards per attempt. His starting wide receivers are RaRa Thomas, who has 31 receptions for 495 yards and five touchdowns, Tray Taylor, who has 28 receptions for 478 yards and three touchdowns, and DJ Epps, who has 40 receptions for 430 yards and five touchdowns. Tight end Ethan Conner also contributes, as he has 26 receptions for 362 yards and three touchdowns. The Trojans average 216.4 passing yards per game, good for 83rd in the country. In the ground game, their starting running back is Tae Meadows, who has carried the ball 152 times for 685 yards and five touchdowns so far this season. Their backup running back is Jordan Lovett, who has 79 carries for 311 yards and two touchdowns on the year. Troy is one of the worst rushing offenses in the nation, as they rank 121st in that category, only averaging 109.2 rushing yards per game. On the whole, Troy ranks 86th in the country in scoring offense, averaging 25.2 points per game, and 115th in the country in total offense, only averaging 325.6 total yards per game. This is not a very good offense. They will be up against a James Madison defense that ranks 10th in the country in scoring defense, only giving up 16.0 points per game. Their main contributors at linebacker are Trent Hendrick, who leads the team with 91 tackles and is tied for fourth on the team with three sacks, Gannon Weathersby, who is fourth on the team with 53 tackles and has one sack, and Drew Spinogatti, who is fifth on the team with 42 tackles and has one sack. Along the defensive line, they have a deep rotation headlined by Aiden Gobaira, who is sixth on the team with 37 tackles and tied for first on the team with four sacks, Amar Thomas, who is seventh on the team with 36 tackles and has two sacks, Sahir West, who is tied for ninth on the team with 33 tackles and tied for first on the team with four sacks, Mychal McMullin, who is tied for twelfth on the team with 27 tackles, Xavier Holmes, who is tied for twelfth on the team with 27 tackles and third on the team with 3.5 sacks, and Immanuel Bush, who is fourteenth on the team with 26 tackles and tied for fourth on the team with three sacks. James Madison has an elite rushing defense, as they rank fifth in the country in that category, only giving up 84.7 rushing yards per game. In the secondary, their starting safeties are Tyler Brown, who is second on the team with 71 tackles, tied for fourth on the team with four passes defended, and has an interception, and Jacob Thomas, who is third on the team with 62 tackles, tied for third on the team with six passes defended, and tied for second on the team with two interceptions. They have a solid tandem at cornerback in Elijah Culp, who is ninth on the team with 34 tackles and tied for third on the team with six passes defended, and Justin Eaglin, who is tied for tenth on the team with 33 tackles, second on the team with seven passes defended, and leads the team with four interceptions. DJ Barksdale is an excellent nickel back, as he is tied for tenth on the team with 33 tackles, leads the team with nine passes defended, and is second on the team with two interceptions. The Dukes have the 12th best passing defense in the nation, giving up 168.8 passing yards per game. Overall, James Madison ranks fifth in the country in total defense, giving up 253.3 total yards per game. From a matchup perspective, it is difficult to see how Troy is going to be able to move the ball against this James Madison defense. The Trojans are going to struggle to run the ball here, as they have one of the worst rushing offenses in the country, while James Madison has one of the best rushing defenses. This means that Crowder is going to have to have a big game, but he has struggled with efficiency all season long, and James Madison has a good passing defense too. Troy is going to have a difficult time scoring points in this matchup. 

    When James Madison has the Ball:        When James Madison has the ball, they are led by quarterback Alonza Barnett III. So far this season, Barnett III has thrown 297 passes with 183 completions for 2,440 yards with 20 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He averages a solid 8.2 yards per attempt. He is also a solid runner, as he has carried the ball 103 times for 459 yards and 13 touchdowns on the year. His top wide receiver is Landon Ellis, who has 32 catches for 532 yards and five touchdowns so far this season. Nick DeGennaro, who has 21 catches for 386 yards and four touchdowns, Jaylen Sanchez, who has 26 catches for 368 yards and one touchdown, and Braedon Wisloski, who has 18 catches for 275 yards and three touchdowns, are the other main contributors at wide receiver. Running back Wayne Knight has also caught 35 passes for 368 yards and one touchdown. James Madison's passing offense isn't the strongest, as they rank 88th in the country, only having 211.7 passing yards per game. In the ground game, they are led by the aforementioned Knight, who has carried the ball 169 times for 1,051 yards and eight touchdowns on the year. Jordan Fuller is the backup running back, as he has 82 carries for 415 yards and five touchdowns so far this season. This is where the strength of James Madison's offense lies, as they rank 6th in the country in rushing offense, averaging 239.8 rushing yards per game. Overall, James Madison ranks 10th in the country in scoring offense, averaging 37.8 points per game, and 21st in the country in total offense, averaging 451.4 total yards per game. Troy's defense, meanwhile, ranks 63rd in the country in scoring defense, giving up 23.9 points per game. At linebacker, they are led by Jordan Stringer, who leads the team with 104 tackles, is tied for third on the team with two sacks, and is fourth on the team with three passes defended. Their other starting linebackers are TJ Thompson, who is tied for eighth on the team with 37 tackles and has an interception, Luke Hodge, who is tenth on the team with 36 tackles and has two passes defended, and Steven Cattledge, who is thirteenth on the team with 34 tackles and tied for second on the team with two sacks. Along the defensive line, they are led by ends Donnie Smith, who is fifth on the team with 41 tackles and first on the team with nine sacks, and Jah-Mal Williams, who is sixth on the team with 39 tackles and second on the team with four sacks. Their starting defensive tackles are Luis Medina, who is tied for eleventh on the team with 35 tackles and tied for third on the team with two sacks, and Julian Peterson, who is fifteenth on the team with 31 tackles and has one sack. There are several other players in the defensive line rotation, including Elijah Davis, who is tied for eighth on the team with 37 tackles and tied for third on the team with two sacks, Taleeq Robbins, who is tied for tenth on the team with 35 tackles and has 0.5 sacks, DJ Jackson Jr., who is tied for sixteenth on the team with 22 tackles and tied for third on the team with two sacks, Jamel Fils-Aime, who is tied for sixteenth on the team with 22 tackles and tied for third on the team with two sacks, and Kam Curry, who is tied for eighteenth on the team with 18 tackles and has 0.5 sacks. Overall, though, Troy is pretty weak at defending the run, as they rank 96th in the nation in that category, giving up 171.0 rushing yards per game. In the secondary, their starting safeties are Devin Lafeyette, who ranks second on the team with 99 tackles, third on the team with four passes defended, and tied for first on the team with two interceptions, and Justin Powe, who ranks fourth on the team with 51 tackles and has one pass defended and one interception. Their starters at cornerback are Jaquez White, who is third on the team with 51 tackles, leads the team with 11 passes defended, and is tied for first on the team with two interceptions, and Kaleno Levine, who is seventh on the team with 38 tackles, second on the team with five passes defended, and has one interception. Troy ranks 48th in the country in passing defense, giving up 206.8 passing yards per game. Overall, Troy ranks 71st in the country in total defense, giving up 377.8 total yards per game. From a matchup perspective, James Madison should run the ball a lot here. Their rushing offense ranks as one of the best in the country, while Troy's rushing defense is pretty weak. James Madison does not have a particularly good passing offense, and Troy is solid against the pass, so James Madison should try to take advantage of the area where they have the edge. If they run the ball effectively, that may open up some shots downfield. 

    Prediction:              This is an important game for the playoff race, but one team appears to have the clear edge: James Madison. Frankly, when I look at Troy, I don't know how they even got to a conference championship game. James Madison has the clear edge in every area except in their passing offense against Troy's passing defense, but even with that, I think that James Madison will be able to score via the ground game. I don't know how Troy is going to score in this game, given the matchups. For this reason, I think that James Madison will win this game fairly easily, capture their first Sun Belt Championship, and eagerly hope that Duke can upset Virginia in the ACC Championship Game on Saturday night. 

    Projected Final Score:        James Madison 31, Troy 7